Most of any prevailing analysis of the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference finals will dictate the Spurs as the favorites in this series.
Allow me to review the salient facts supporting this assertion.
Firstly, points per game, opponents’ points per game and the rest-versus-rust argument are essentially negated. The Spurs rank second and 16th (technically tied for 14th) in the first two categories with 103.7 and 96.5. The Thunder, meanwhile, rank just one spot below those respective metrics at third and 17th with 103.1 and 96.9.
Both teams also have at least six full days of rest before their upcoming matchup (the Spurs having one more day than the Thunder). So the likelihood of each team coming out firing on all cylinders or just the opposite is fairly equal.
Next comes the comparison between both squads’ prolific Big 3s and opposing supporting casts.
The Thunder feature the NBA’s scoring champion in Kevin Durant, the league’s leading scorer at point guard in Russell Westbrook and James Harden, the Sixth Man of The Year Award winner. All thrive on fresh legs and are just 23 years old or younger.
The Spurs’ trio includes Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, all being incredibly accomplished players with at least three titles to their credit. At age 36, 34 and 30, one could argue that the thoroughly taxing amount of NBA miles on their treads will detract from their championship pedigree.
I’ll side with San Antonio’s threesome because of championship experience and its underrated talent displayed in 2012. Parker is having a career year as a facilitating point guard, Duncan is as dominant as ever (despite what statistics alone would reflect) and Ginobili established career highs in field goal, three-point and free-throw percentage. The deft shooting guard is also rejuvenated having played in only 34 games.
Which team will ultimately win the Western Conference Finals?
Which team will ultimately win the Western Conference Finals?
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Oklahoma City Thunder
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San Antonio Spurs
Furthermore, the Spurs are equipped with superior ancillary players and a more balanced scoring attack. Gary Neal, DeJuan Blair, Tiago Splitter and Daniel Green all averaged nine points per game this season. So far in the playoffs, Kawhi Leonard (8.5 PPG, 1.5 SPG), Daniel Green (10.4 PPG, 4 RPG) and Boris Diaw (6.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG) are contributing as well.
Oklahoma City does not possess another reliable scorer in the post, and despite the rebounding and defensive prowess of Serge Ibaka, Thabo Sefolosha and Kendrick Perkins, none contribute offensively on a consistent basis.
A bevy of other factors are also aligned in favor of the Spurs.
They have home-field advantage, a place where they registered a combined 32-5 record in the regular and postseason. They have peeled off an incredible 18 consecutive wins, including eight in a row in vanquishing both the Jazz and Clippers. And the Spurs went 2-1 against the Thunder in 2012, beating them 114-105 in the rather frightening enemy territory.
Also, the Spurs have Gregg Popovich as their in-game general and a monumental advantage in the head coaching department. Pop has led his team to an unreal 13 consecutive seasons of at least 50 wins and four NBA titles. While fairly successful in his own right, Scotty Brooks is in just his fourth season as HC and has compiled 19 playoff victories. Popovich has 116.
Coming back full circle, can the Oklahoma City Thunder actually defeat the San Antonio Spurs in a seven-game series?
Can they? Yes. Will they? No.
The Spurs will force them to live and subsequently die by the jump shot. Durant will produce big when given the chance, but Westbrook will ultimately take more shots and go cold in multiple contests, including the deciding Game 6.
San Antonio's, and specifically Tim Duncan’s, window for another championship is coming to a close. They’ll play with a greater sense of urgency en route to outscoring the Thunder in a Western Conference finals victory in six games.
Oklahoma City will put forth a valiant effort but come up short this time around. However, expect them to be in position to capture an NBA Championship in every season for years to come.
The Spurs win in six, but it will be a phenomenally compelling matchup nonetheless.
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