The Oklahoma City Thunder are an early favorite to represent the Western Conference in the NBA finals. They are young, quicker than quick, energetic, and have a weapon of mass destruction: Kevin Durant. Are they a good team? They are great team. However, a closer look at this bunch will reveal that they are not an NBA championship caliber squad. So due to their sky high expectations, they are in a sense, pretenders.
Let’s glance at the numbers. The Thunder have the best record in the West through January 11th, and are the first team this year to win the dreaded back to back to back, three-game set. Where the Thunder excel most is offensively. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Oklahoma City scores 100.5 points per game, which puts them at fifth best in the league. Arguably the top pure scorer in the game, Kevin Durant, is a huge component in their offensive success. With Durant, the explosive Russell Westbrook and emerging lefty James Harden running the court, it is easy to see why the Thunder are an offensive threat. But the threat stops there.
Oklahoma City allows a whopping 96.9 points per game which lands them at 23rd in the league. Granted, they have an exceptional post defender with Kendrick Perkins, a galvanizing shot blocker with Serge Ibaka, and they are athletic enough to steal the ball at a high rate. But these are all just bells and whistles if you can’t stop the opponent from scoring.
In the rebound department, they are ranked 11th at just under 43 a game. To break it down, they are near last in the league at offensive rebounds, but fourth overall on getting defensive boards. And when you are that efficient with defensive rebounds, that means the other team hardly has any opportunity at second chance points off of offensive boards, which is without a doubt a huge reason of the Thunder’s success. While they are not a terrible rebounding team, what happens if they meet the Lakers, who are the best in the league on the boards to go with the third best defense? It doesn’t bode well.
Looking at the Thunder, a definite red flag is their assist rate. They are 21st overall in assists per game, which means they do not play off of the ball well. Instead, they have a few players (Durant and Westbrook) who are constantly creating shots for themselves. Although usually successful at it, this style of play can take your teammates out of the game, something you want to avoid in the playoffs.
When it comes to turnovers, a very informative indicator stat, the Thunder turn the ball over at an ugly 15.6 times a game, putting them at 18th. Their starting point guard, Westbrook, has the second most turnovers in the game. In the playoffs, I want to know that the guy bringing the ball up court isn’t going to turn the ball over to the other team often.
My ingredients for success in a basketball team consist of points scored, points allowed, rebounds, and turnovers. The Thunder have a handle on one of those elements.
Sure, you could point to the fact that they are about as young as a high-school team and you can argue that they will only get better. And then I tell you that last year, the Thunder were better in the turnover, rebound and defensive categories than they are currently, and your theory deflates. In other words, they are getting worse.
Why the regression? For one, I feel that this team has two superstar’s without the maturity of a champion-esque player. It is no secret that Westbrook and Durant are on two different pages at times. To be honest, I am not sure this combo will ever work, until one truly asserts himself as the alpha. Durant is a great player, but I have yet to see that X-factor out of him that makes all around him noticeably better, as you see in LeBron, Kobe, or Rose. And Westbrook needs to be an efficient player. The loose cannon label looks good for only so long.
Secondly, Scott Brooks is not a hard nose. He may be a good coach for various, respectable reasons, but he is lacking in stern discipline. Philadelphia is also a very youthful team, but coach Doug Collins has them playing smart, veteran-style basketball. I realize the Thunder are a young team, but young doesn’t have to mean disorganized.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are an exciting, dangerous unit that will be a force for the next decade. You might even see them sustain the best record in the West this year. But winning it all? Don’t let them fool you, unless they clean up their act, they are just a pretender.
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