The first round of the NBA Playoffs get underway on Saturday as the Dallas Mavericks travel to Oklahoma to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder. The game is scheduled for a 9:30 pm start time and it will be televised live on ESPN. Currently the odds have Oklahoma City favored by 7.5 points with the total sitting at 193.5 points for the contest.Â
Free Analysis: The defending champion Mavericks are not expected to remain in the playoffs for very long as they face a Thunder team that most experts think will represent the West in the NBA Finals.Dallas beat Oklahoma City in five games in last year’s Western Conference Finals, but the Thunder could have prevailed in every one of those contests, losing by just 9, 6, 7 and 4 points. And the Mavs no longer have two key players from that series in C Tyson Chandler (10.6 RPG in 2011 West finals) and PG Jose Juan Barea (11.4 PPG in 2011 West finals). Meanwhile, Dirk Nowitzki submitted a disappointing season by his standards. Nowitzki's 21.6 points and 6.7 rebounds per game were his fewest since the 1999-00 season. He shot 45.7 percent from the floor, his worst mark since his rookie campaign. The good news for Mavericks faithful is that Nowitzki may be returning to form. Prior to the All-Star game, he averaged 19.6 points on 27.8 percent three-point shooting. Since then, he's upped his averages to 23.6 points on 43.4 percent from three. Dirk has always thrived against the Thunder. He torched them for 32.2 PPG in last year’s playoff series and has averaged 28.7 PPG against them in the past four regular seasons.  Kidd (6.2 PPG, 5.5 APG) has gotten plenty of rest, sitting out past final two games, and has done a fantastic job running the point in his past five contests with 37 assists and just seven turnovers. He just hasn’t done much against the Thunder this year, scoring 3.0 PPG with 5.7 APG in the three meetings. SG Jason Terry (15.1 PPG) is the key to Dallas hanging around in this series. The streaky shooter is currently in a cold spell though, making just 7-of-21 FG (2-of-12 threes) in his past two games. He has shot very well against OKC though, pouring in 18.5 PPG on 11-of-23 three-pointers in the four meetings. The lack of home-court advantage will really hurt Dallas, which was a dreadful 13-20 on the road this year, scoring just 94.2 PPG (44% FG) away from home. Oklahoma City's methodical ascent to the league's elevated stratum has come to fruition, as the Thunder enter the playoffs as one of the top seeds in the Western Conference. Durant (28.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG) was able to pump in 28.0 PPG in last year’s West finals versus Dallas, but made just 42.9% FG and 23.3% threes. He’s averaged 25.5 PPG against the Mavs this season, but made just 44.6% of his shots. However, Durant enters this series on quite a roll, scoring at least 24 points in eight straight games, averaging 31.6 PPG on 47% FG and 44.2% threes during this stretch. Westbrook (23.6 PPG, 5.5 APG) was in a bit of a funk for a five-game stretch (13.8 PPG on 30.5% FG and 1-of-12 threes), but finished his season with 30 points and nine assists in a loss to Denver. The Thunder finished third in the league in both scoring (103.1 PPG) and shooting (47.1% FG), while also placing fourth in the NBA in FG Pct. defense (42.7%). Much of this had to do with a league-high 8.2 blocks per game, 3.7 of them coming from PF Serge Ibaka. Oklahoma City was 26-7 SU  and 17-16 ATS at home this year.Â
Free Pick: Gonna go with the home team in this one. Gotta expect the Thunder to come out and make a statement vs the team that knocked them out of last years playoffs.  Last year’s experience was invaluable for OKC and now this young team is ready to dominate an erratic Mavs squad that ended the season losing four of its final six contests, allowing a whopping 106.3 PPG (47% FG, 41.4% threes) during this slump. This season’s series is 3-1 in favor of Oklahoma City, which is clearly the more consistent and deeper team in this matchup. The Thunder also have the league’s top scorer in SF Kevin Durant (28.0 PPG), and PG Russell Westbrook has matured greatly since his poor 2011 West Finals performance (36% FG, 20% threes, 4.8 TOPG). Westbrook has pumped in 23.6 PPG on 46% FG clip this season, including 22.8 PPG against Dallas. Oklahoma City is much younger and more determined after an amazing season and should start the series off with a nice DD win.Â
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Host Marco D'Angelo and Pregame Pro Vegas Runner discuss their strategies about betting the NBA Playoffs and being successful.
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